Form expert The Watchdog believes Friday night’s heats of the Group 2 Geelong Gold Cup are wide open, boldly predicting, “I think this series is going to throw up a bit of a smoky!”

GRV’s historic first Good Friday of racing culminates with six superb heats of the $50,000 to-the-winner Cup, with TAB rating Compliance, runaway winner of the Group 2 Ballarat Cup last Friday night, and Mepunga Mustang joint $5.50 favourites in its ‘All In’ market.

However, with the rise in distance from 450m at Ballarat to 520m at Geelong, The Watchdog believes the Karen Pitt-trained Compliance could be vulnerable.

Click HERE  for TAB’s ‘All In’ Geelong Gold Cup market

“Compliance is going to have to get to the front and get to it quite comfortably, because we know he doesn’t run out a true 500m,” The Watchdog warned.

Group 2 Shepparton Cup winner and Ballarat Cup placegetter Substantial is a $6.50 hope along with prodigious talent Big Opal Rocks.

“Substantial is absolutely flying, and Box 8 should suit, so he deserves to be well in the market.”

“Compliance is going to have to get to the front and get to it quite comfortably, because we know he doesn’t run out a true 500m.”

– THE WATCHDOG

The Watchdog is very keen on the prospects of $13 chance Decimate, trained by champion mentor Jason Thompson, which is ideally drawn in Box 1 – from where he’s won four of five career starts – in the opening heat.

But in the same heat, The Watchdog will also be keeping a close eye on $51 hope Ariarne Bale (Box 2; was $201), trained by Rebecca Gibbons, and $201 chance Usman Bale (Box 5), prepared by Samantha Grenfell.

The Watchdog’s $50 spend

$20 on Decimate to win at $13
$10 on Gracie Bale to win at $51
$5 on Aston Shine to win at $71
$5 on Usman Bale to win at $201

$5 on Ariarne Bale to win at $51
$5 on Ariarne Bale to place at $13.50
*** Ariarne Bale was $201 the win/$51 the place when The Watchdog recorded his preview ***

“Decimate definitely holds the key. From Box 1 he should be able to possie up in the top two or three and we know what he can do mid-race, so there should be no excuses for him,” said The Watchdog.

“I think Ariarne Bale represents a lot of value, she’ll scrape the paint, she’s gone quick around The Meadows and she’s on the improve.

“Usman Bale was enormous behind Amron Boy a few runs back at The Meadows. If he can spear the lids, he’s right in the mix.”

The other ‘roughies’ to attract The Watchdog’s attention are Gracie Bale, trained by Daniel Gibbons, at $51, and the Graeme Jose-prepared Aston Shine – runner-up in the 2021 Group 2 Cranbourne Cup (in October) – at $71.

“Gracie Bale has Box 2 in her heat, and she should get the dream run through. I think she’s going to be a great chance. I think Aston Shine can get across (Box 7) and if he draws a box in the final, he’ll be much shorter – single figures.”

WATCH: DECIMATE (3) displayed his star potential when he was victorious in a slashing 29.33 seconds at Sandown Park (515m) on December 30.     Results