Expert form analyst The Watchdog is tipping Melbourne Cup hero Koblenz to win the inaugural TAB Phoenix at The Meadows this Saturday night and in the process become Australian greyhound racing’s greatest stakes winner.

While The Watchdog concedes Box 8 could be problematic, he says Koblenz’s brilliant early speed can offset the outside alley and has stood TAB’s $2.90 second elect out in his recommended Trifecta and Exacta investments.

“He just does everything right, this greyhound,” The Watchdog said of Koblenz.

“From Box 8, I know it’s not ideal, but he has gone 5.07sec previously from this draw, at this track. If he can zip away in the middle stages, they’re going to have a hard time reeling him in.”

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The Watchdog is confident Koblenz can overcome a testing draw, but not so Aston Rupee, believing Box 5 could bring the $2.40 favourite undone, unless he improves on below par first splits in the heat and final of the Group 1 Melbourne Cup.

“I think from Box 5 he’s going to struggle again,” The Watchdog said.

“He’s got Vice Grip (Box 6) on his outside, who’s a great box dog, so he could cause a little bit of crowding. You’ve got Wow She’s Fast (Box 4), who’s about 5.10sec to 5.12sec to the first marker, so there could be three or four dogs around Aston Rupee to the first turn.

“He’s going to find bother. If he loses more than four lengths then he probably can’t win. If he can head to the back within ‘four’ of the leader, he’s definitely a chance because we know how strong he is in the run home.”

The Watchdog’s $20 spend

$8 Trifecta on 8 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,4,5 (50% return)
$4 Exacta on 8 / 1,2,3,5 (100% return)
$8 on Jungle Deuce to win at $7.50

While Koblenz is The Watchdog’s selection for the history-making TAB Phoenix, he says well-drawn New South Wales star Jungle Deuce (Box 2) is the forgotten dog and represents “tremendous value” at his current quote of $7.50.

“Everyone has forgotten how good he is,” The Watchdog said.

“I think he’s got a 29.60-type engine around The Meadows. He should clear ‘the red’, Billy Creek, in the run to the first turn and if he heads to the back in third or fourth he’s going to make his presence felt. If he settles in front of Aston Rupee, I don’t think Aston Rupee can get past him.”

TAB PHOENIX (525m)
The Meadows, Saturday 8:30pm
Total prizemoney $1.145 million
1st $750,000 | 2nd $100,000 | 3rd $80,000 | 4th $65,000 | 5th to 8th $37,500
1 BILLY CREEK (Ian Gilders, Beryl NSW)
2 JUNGLE DEUCE (Raymond Smith, Forbes NSW)
3 SPOTTED ELK (Graham Hall, Marburg QLD)
4 WOW SHE’S FAST (Jackie Greenough, Pearcedale VIC)
5 ASTON RUPEE (Glenn Rounds, Devon Meadows VIC)
6 VICE GRIP (Adam Smithson, Nambeelup WA)
7 TRUE COLLINDA (Jason Thompson, Pearcedale VIC)
8 KOBLENZ (David Geall, Lara VIC)
Reserves
9 LALA KIWI (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)   SCRATCHED
10 LAKEVIEW WALTER (Monique Whelan, Metung VIC)   SCRATCHED

WATCH: KOBLENZ (3) burst out of the boxes and was never headed running 29.40sec in the Group 1 TAB Melbourne Cup final at Sandown Park on November 26.     Results

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