The scratching of potential topliner Rebellious is a huge advantage for kennelmate Mr. America (10 from 20 – 4 from 7 Box 2) according to The Watchdog in tonight’s $6,500 to-the-winner Geelong Derby final.

Group finalists Keep It Blue (2 of last 4) and Hill Top Jonah (14 from 29 – 2 from 3 Box 8), plus the well-performed Nikoli Bale (3 from 3 Trk/Dst) and Kinson Bale (5 of last 6), are also in contention.

With Lala Kiwi and Qwara Bale running in G1 Adelaide Cup heats last night, Aston Rhone (2 of last 4) v G3 finalist Highly Explosive (8 from 20 – 25.40sec PB) v Tan Star (3 of last 4) v Black Robin v Osprey Rose (2 of last 3) is an open Geelong Oaks final with a $6,500 first prize.

Dual G3 placegetter Koblenz (19 from 31 – 3 from 4 Box 2) is expected to prevail in the Mixed 4/5 460m race, although Aston Flame (7 from 14) and Street Riot (8 from 16) are classy.

The Watchdog is confident that Buster Giblet, Typhoon Sammy (14 from 21) and Aston Mirage will all triumph.

At The Meadows, G3 winner Gypsy Wyong (12 from 21) faces G3 finalists Empress Tears and Knicks Bale, while G2 winner Jax Bale (29.71sec PB) highlights the Mixed 4/5 525m race.

Group performers Fernando Mick (6 from 16 Trk/Dst) v Lakeview Walter (9 from 23 – 3 from 5 Box 2) v Barooga Smoke (15 from 36) v Carry On Angel should be a terrific contest, while Untapped (2 from 3 Box 1) and G1 finalist Hill Top Jack (15 from 38 – 3 from 4 Box 3) are strongly fancied by The Watchdog.

Mr. Neo v G3 finalist Gotham Duke (16 from 44) v The Horizon finalist Whistling Bullet (3 from 7 Box 7) v Nicholas Rose is the best race at Sale this evening, while Coolant (13 from 25) and G1 finalist Earn The Answers (29.10sec PB) are other standout chasers.

Dundee Idol and Jaimandy Jester (2 from 5 Trk/Dst) are The Watchdog’s top selections for the Tier 3 meeting at Healesville.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend…

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Geelong Derby Final

MR. AMERICA ? NIKOLI BALE ? KINSON BALE ? HILL TOP JONAH

? Geelong ? Race 8 ? 460m ⏱ 9:19pm

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539035/race/8

The Watchdog says ?: It is unfortunate that REBELLIOUS (1) is scratched, however we are still left with an elite line-up. His kennelmate MR. AMERICA (2) is best served by the scratching as he now has a slow beginner drawn directly on his inside and if he can reproduce his slick 6.52sec run to the first marker from last week, he should have no trouble crossing and assuming control as they head into the bend. It took a mighty performance from NIKOLI BALE (4) to reel him in last week and I think he can turn for home with a bigger lead than last week and that should be the difference. ‘Nikoli’ is the danger again. This underrated chaser has turned in some dynamic performances in recent months and with a clear run in the initial stages, he should be able to put himself into contention as they head into the turn. He is three-of-three over this track/distance and continues to get better all the time. KINSON BALE (7) and HILL TOP JONAH (8) are two of the state’s hottest speedsters at present and clearly have the talent to win a race of this calibre. However, with ‘Jonah’ expected to look for the rail soon after box rise, I am expecting them to bump, and they will be giving the inside division a head start. KEEP IT BLUE (3) is as honest as they come and he is capable of causing an upset, whilst up-and-comer PEAKY BLAZER (9) exits the red alley now and he recorded his sizzling 25.68sec PB here from Box 1, so he must come into calculations.

Selections:  2 – 4 – 3 – 9

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Friday 1 October

? $3 Win – UNTAPPED
? The Meadows ? Race 7 ? Box 1 ? 600m ⏱ 5:52pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.90 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539038/race/7

The Watchdog says ? : She was a breathtaking 33.87sec Sandown Park winner from this draw recently and a similar performance today can see her score again. There is not a lot of pace drawn on her outside, so she should be able to punch through and hold a top two spot at the bend and she will be very strong in the run home.

? $1 Win – YELLOW BRICK     ? Lucky Longshot ?
? The Meadows ? Race 12 ? Box 6 ? 525m ⏱ 7:27pm
TAB fixed odds: $7 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539038/race/12

The Watchdog says ? : She is much better than her form indicates, and she looks very well graded today. Armed with handy early speed, she should have enough zip to cross and assume control at the bend, and she has proven in the past that she is hard to get past when in the clear.

? $2 Win – MEPUNGA LEGEND
? Geelong ? Race 4 ? Box 7 ? 460m ⏱ 7:49pm
TAB fixed odds: $3.90 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539035/race/4

The Watchdog says ? : MEPUNGA LEGEND (7) has been luckless in stronger races in town of late and from the favourable draw, he is expected to make amends tonight. He was a terrific 25.85sec winner here from this draw in August and he beat the talented Valeska Bale on that occasion. If he can produce a similar performance tonight, he may prove too strong in the run home.

? $2 Win – OZARK BALE
? Geelong ? Race 5 ? Box 8 ? 460m ⏱ 8:12pm
TAB fixed odds: $3.20 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539035/race/5

The Watchdog says ? : His form does not read that well, but he will find this easier than his most recent assignments in town. He is better suited to this track, and he likes to stay wide in his races, so with an even getaway he should be able to work into the mix as they head into the turn, and I expect him to prove too classy in the run home.

? $2 Win – MR. AMERICA
? Geelong ? Race 8 ? Box 2 ? 460m ⏱ 9:19pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
TAB fixed odds: $2.40 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539035/race/8

The Watchdog says ? : With the scratching of REBELLIOUS, he now has a slow beginner drawn directly on his inside, so he should have no trouble crossing and finding the rail early. If he can reproduce his heat performance, they will have their work cut out trying to reel him in.

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?

Thursday 30 September: $19.57 (+96%)
Wednesday 29 September: $11.60 (+16%)
Tuesday 28 September: $15.50 (+55%)
Monday 27 September: $3.73 (-63%)
Sunday 26 September: $4.10 (-59%)
Saturday 25 September: $22.10 (+121%)
Friday 24 September: $7.98 (-20%)

Past 7 days: $84.58 for $70 invested (+21%)
Past 14 days: $125.11 for $140 invested (-11%)
Past 28 days: $206.12 for $280 invested (-26%)

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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