After finishing second in back-to-back 515m races at Sandown Park, the highly-touted Rebellious (11 from 16) is dropping back in distance for tonight’s Mixed 4/5 440m race at Sale.

The winner of July’s The Prospector final at Bendigo recorded a scintillating 8.5-length victory at his third career start, which is the only time he has raced at Sale over 440m.

All eyes will be on the clock if the Jason Thompson-trained son of Barcia Bale and On The Runway steps away cleanly.

Desert Flame is The Watchdog’s top selection in the $5,600 to-the-winner GRV Vic Bred Distance Series final (650m), while Mr. Neo returns from a last-start placing at The Meadows.

At Healesville, Rumour Is Fact (15 from 34 – 10 from 21 Trk/Dst) and Invictus Ethan – second to Kasemi in last Sunday’s $10,000 Healesville Members Trophy final – are expected to prevail.

Victorian Straight Track Championship finalist Untested v Six Speed Manual (4 from 5) v G2 finalist Daniel Avocado v G3 winner More Deductions should be an intriguing contest.

At Sandown Park, G1 performer Persian Goddess (29.22sec PB) should prove too classy in a Grade 5 heat, while Aston Shine (2 of last 5) will appreciate going down in class.

G1 finalists Devel Sixteen and Envy To Burn face veteran Shantelle Rose (2 of last 4), while G3 finalists So Predictable (2 from 5 Trk/Dst), Just Wins Boss and Overflow Lisa will provide a tough battle.

G3 finalist Aston Lavinia (29.31sec PB) v Hugo v Weblec Thunder (4 of last 7) should offer an exciting clash.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend…

? MUST-WATCH RACE: James Yeates Printing and Design Mixed 4/5

REBELLIOUS ? The Clock

? Sale ? Race 7 ? Box 7 ? 440m ⏱ 8:04pm

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538974/race/7

The Watchdog says ?: REBELLIOUS (7) is one of the most gifted chasers in the game and he is expected to fire after a freshen up. He ventured to town last month and although he recorded two quick placings, he did not appear to be comfortable at all on two bends as he looked lost through the corner and back straight. Tonight, he returns to Sale where he has already carved out a blistering 24.57sec previously and he has the potential to go even faster. There is not a lot of depth in this event and with the lack of pace drawn either side, he should be able to assume control soon after box rise, and it will be a procession from there on. If the track is in good condition, a sub 24.40sec run could be on the cards. He will be unbackable odds but punters looking to play the exotics will need to include TWO FACE (2), FOUR ACES (5) and FLYWHEEL DOLLY (8). All three are armed with handy early speed and one of them should exit the bend in second spot behind the favourite. Fingers crossed the favourite does everything right and he can return to town in the coming months, as he could be a major player in the upcoming Melbourne Cup carnival.

Selections:  7 – 8 – 2 – 5

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Sunday 19 September

? $2.50 Multi

First ?: Win – RUMOUR IS FACT
? Healesville ? Race 5 ? Box 2 ? 300m ⏱ 12:13pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.75 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/5

Second ?: Win – INVICTUS ETHAN
? Healesville ? Race 8 ? Box 3 ? 350m ⏱ 1:04pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.40 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/8

Third ?: Place – SMALL SOLDIER
? Healesville ? Race 9 ? Box 1 ? 350m ⏱ 1:25pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.24 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/9

The Watchdog says ? : RUMOUR IS FACT (2) is a track specialist and he should be making every post a winner, while INVICTUS ETHAN (3) has been enormous here in recent weeks and with a clean getaway he should be able to get the job done. SMALL SOLDIER (1) is expected to lead them up in Race 9 and I think she is a great chance of winning, however we have elected to go with the place option to be safe.

Multi price: $3.04

? $1 Win – SIMON SAYS     ? Lucky Longshot ?
? $1 Win – UNQUESTIONED
? Healesville ? Race 7 ? Boxes 6 & 7 ? 350m ⏱ 12:49pm
TAB fixed odds: $9 Win (Simon Says)
TAB fixed odds: $4.60 Win (Unquestioned)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/7

The Watchdog says ? : UNQUESTIONED (7) has been racing well here of late in stronger company and she will appreciate the empty draw outside. She should get plenty of room soon after box rise, and she may prove too classy in the run home. SIMON SAYS (6) is far better than his form reads, and he represents value today. He is very strong in the run home, and he can really turn it on when he gets into open space. If the favourites happen to bump, he could swoop over the top late.

? $1.50 Multi

First ?: Win – SMALL SOLDIER
? Healesville ? Race 9 ? Box 1 ? 350m ⏱ 1:25pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.60 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/9

Second ?: Place – DEVIL’S SPIRIT
? Healesville ? Race 10 ? Box 8 ? 300m ⏱ 1:40pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.75 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/10

Third ?: Place – TOYED
? Healesville ? Race 11 ? Box 6 ? 300m ⏱ 2:02pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.70 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538975/race/11

The Watchdog says ? : SMALL SOLDIER (1) has been racing with confidence and she should be able to hold the early lead. She has proven in the past that she is a bold front runner, and she will make them work hard to get past. DEVIL’S SPIRIT (8) has continued to improve with each run from a spell and he looks perfectly drawn out wide today, with a clear run early, he should be able to figure in the finish. TOYED (6) loves racing here and with a clear run early he should be able to make an impact.

Multi price: $7.74

? $3 Multi

First ?: Win – DEVEL SIXTEEN
? Sandown Park ? Race 5 ? Box 1 ? 515m ⏱ 3:27pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.80 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/700268745/race/5

Second ?: Place – SO PREDICTABLE
? Sandown Park ? Race 8 ? Box 1 ? 595m ⏱ 4:15pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.40 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/700268745/race/8

Third ?: Place – ZIPPING JAZZ
? Sandown Park ? Race 11 ? Box 1 ? 515m ⏱ 5:10pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.55 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/700268745/race/11

The Watchdog says ? : DEVEL SIXTEEN (1) is all class, and she is drawn to lead from start to finish. SO PREDICTABLE (1) will need an ounce of luck early but he is a very strong type and from the good draw, there should be no excuses. ZIPPING JAZZ (1) is perfectly drawn, and he should be on the pace from the outset, a top two finish looks likely.

Multi price: $3.91

? $1 Trifecta – 7 / 2,5,8 / 2,5,8 (16.66%)
? Sale ? Race 7 ? 440m ⏱ 8:04pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538974/race/7

The Watchdog says ? : REBELLIOUS (7) is an absolute jet and he should be winning with ease. TWO FACE (2), FOUR ACES (5) and FLYWHEEL DOLLY (8) are all armed with early speed, and they can fight it out for the minor end of the money.

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?

Saturday 18 September: $6 (-40%)
Friday 17 September: $3.30 (-67%)
Thursday 16 September: $4.40 (-56%)
Wednesday 15 September: $7.20 (-28%)
Tuesday 14 September: $0 (-100%)
Monday 13 September: $13.60 (+36%)
Sunday 12 September: $6.33 (-37%)

Past 7 days: $40.83 for $70 invested (-42%)
Past 14 days: $69.99 for $140 invested (-50%)
Past 28 days: $184.14 for $280 invested (-34%) 

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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