The Watchdog has taken a close look at Wednesday night’s 725m Speed Star at The Meadows, providing extensive analysis on the four head-to-head matches.

Check it out below…

Click HERE for TAB’s Head-to-Head markets

MATCH RACE 1, 5.59pm

MEPUNGA RUBY $1.30 V MAJOR SACRIFICE $3.50

The Watchdog says: “Mepunga Ruby has always shown enormous staying potential and after a string of impressive runs over the middle distance and staying journeys, she went to another level with a scorching 41.44sec Sandown Park win. Major Sacrifice is another who is on the up and he is two from two this track/distance, however I don’t think he will have the speed to cross ‘Ruby’ in the initial stages and that may be the end of the section.”

Prediction: Mepunga Ruby by 4 lengths in 42.45sec.

MATCH RACE 2, 6.10pm

FIVE STAR $1.55 V EMPRESS TEARS $2.45

The Watchdog says: “Five star is the reigning Sandown Speed Star staying champ and after a string of disappointing performances, he returned to form with a cracking 37.39sec Shepparton win. He now looks poised to play a major role in his second Speed Star series. Empress Tears trialled well in 42.86sec here two weeks back and that would be competitive in this event, however she is a front running type over this journey and with Five Star expected to idle alongside mid-race, she is likely to have trouble holding him off in the closing stages. Due to the pressure that will be  applied, she may get tired earlier than normal.”

Prediction: Five Star by 4 lengths in 42.60sec

MATCH RACE 3, 6.21pm

KNICKS BALE $1.90 V DRAKO BALE $1.90

The Watchdog says: “This is the most intriguing match up of the staying series as indicated by the flip-of-the-coin odds. These two runners met at Sandown Park just over a fortnight ago and Knicks Bale had the edge on that occasion. Both have a great future over this distance range and there isn’t a lot between them, however with the aid of the inside draw, ‘Knicks’ should be able to hold the top as they head into the first bend, and she has proven hard to get past when out in front over this distance. ‘Drako’ possesses a little more brilliance, so expect him to make a play mid race, but I think Knicks Bale should prove a little too strong in the closing stages.”

Prediction: Knicks Bale by 2 lengths in 42.60sec

MATCH RACE 4, 6.33pm

ROCK ON JIMMY $11 V HANK THE HUSTLER $1.04

The Watchdog says: “Hank The Hustler has a clear class edge over his rival and the betting suggests that he should win his match up in convincing style, however if there is to be a surprising effort, it may come in this event. ‘Hank’ has proven that he is capable of leading or coming off the pace in his races, however I think he is a better stayer when he has a sit in the initial stages. Rock On Jimmy has limited early speed, so ‘Hank’ should assume control early and there is a slight concern he may go a little too hard in the initial stages and could be a sitting duck. ‘Jimmy’ trialled in an impressive 42.73sec and a similar performance would see him give this a shake. At the big odds currently on offer, he is worth an investment purely because of the value.”

Prediction: Hank The Hustler by 1 length 42.75sec

Final word:
“Great line-up and I think Mepunga Ruby will use this as a steppingstone in announcing herself as the nation’s best stayer. She is still new to the caper but her win at Sandown last time was simply breathtaking, and she will continue to get better. She should win the overall match up as she is expected to gain a clear passage throughout. Five Star is the obvious danger, however Knicks Bale does represent some value in the overall standings. Rock On Jimmy is the best value in the head-to-head markets. ‘Hank’ has the class edge but ‘Jimmy’ qualified in good time and is silly odds in a match race.”

Tips:
1 Mepunga Ruby
3 Five Star
5 Knicks Bale
8 Rock On Jimmy

The Watchdog’s suggested $20 spend:

$15 Head-to-Head Multi
Mepunga Ruby to defeat Major Sacrifice
Five Star to defeat Empress Tears
Knicks Bale to defeat Drako Bale
Multi price: $3.36

$5 Head-to-Head
Rock On Jimmy to defeat Hank The Hustler
Price: $11

Click HERE for TAB’s Head-to-Head markets

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